A decade after the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that divided the country and caused turmoil, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two prominent journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly fraught and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Aims to Provoke Discussion
The team have analysed the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the matter with a tour of lectures that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts all parties, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily split population where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side lack clarity quite what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is approaching, and a group called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear if and when there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has hidden the shortage of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has taken place in academia but very few elected officials or campaigners want to engage even with the fundamentals. For instance, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, neither author advocates unity or the status quo. They writes two pieces that strive for impartiality in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling economic and societal statistics, past examples and structural examples.
Discussions encompass national emblems, levies, medical care, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of unionist unrest. The objective is to enlighten and encourage discussion.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an recognition of the concept that there may exist good arguments on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens say they support unification but refuse paying higher taxes or adopting a different emblem to reflect unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government must establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is other than just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist considers a referendum in his generation is likely and that it could happen abruptly. "You could have just a mad or a bad or a incompetent official who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate points, he commented. "Somebody will succeed here and somebody will eventually not succeed but all factions has got something to learn from the alternative positions."
Call for Broader Debate
Westminster needed to participate in the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish question."
