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Just two days before the NYC mayoral election, Michael Lange made a significant electoral prediction – not just who would win citywide, but precinct by precinct. The analyst, a political analyst born and raised in the city, has spent more than ten years in left-leaning activism and emerged as something of a local celebrity this year for his thorough analyses into city data and polling.

He released his highly detailed prediction map – accurately predicting that Zohran Mamdani was victorious although failed to predict Andrew Cuomo’s solid showing – on his Substack, his platform. Lange possesses a talent for witty coinages. He highlighted, as an example, the split between the progressive stronghold, stretching from one neighborhood to another area to Astoria, where he predicted (correctly) that the left-wing candidate would triumph by large leads, and the “capitalist corridor” on affluent parts of Manhattan. There, certain media outlets and financial newspapers outrank the New York Times” in audience and most voters leaned toward the independent, who ran as a moderate alternative.

Election Night Patterns and Unexpected Results

How was your election night?

I had to do that because they were adding approximately 200K ballots into the system every few minutes! I was actually somewhat anxious initially: The candidate led the initial ballots by a dozen percentage points, but came two big batches of votes that came in later and the advantage went from 12 to 8%. I was worried.

You know, there was a world in which election day went somewhat badly for him, where the opponent would have essentially doubling his votes from the earlier contest. But the winner added 500,000 supporters to his initial base, and that’s a huge reason why he succeeded. He campaigned and greatly broadened his base from the primary.

Expanding Support

Where did the mayor-elect gain those extra votes from?

He built the alliance that progressives always wanted to build: diverse racially, it’s young, tenants and it’s people facing cost pressures. He improved considerably with minority communities, working- and middle-class voters, compared to the primary. Plus he further maximized his base of left-leaning activists, young leftists, and Muslims and south Asians. He couldn’t have won without expanding his appeal.

He created the alliance that progressives long aimed for: multiracial, young, tenants and residents struggling with costs

There were also some Trump/Mamdani voters – is this significant?

It is a genuine phenomenon, confined to working-class Latinos, Asian communities and Islamic voters. Voters in immigrant strongholds that supported Trump previously backed the progressive this year. But I wouldn’t say he was winning over white working-class voters and Maga voters.

Turnout and Effects

A major development of the election was the sky-high turnout. Who benefited?

Each candidate. Turnout was significantly higher than anticipated. I figured we might go over two million, but it’s closer to 2.3 million – which is a lot of darn voters. There was a substantial opposition group, who were motivated, but his supporters was also motivated, and that was enough to win.

You predicted he’d exceed half the ballots. Is he on course for that?

Right now it appears he’s likely to get over half. He’s at 50.4% but there’s still probably 200K ballots uncounted at that time. Thus it’s not certain, but I think probable, and I wish he achieves it because afterwards no one can say Sliwa was a spoiler.

GOP Decline

Curtis Sliwa, the Republican candidate, was another surprise. His support completely collapsed.

He lost a single precinct in any area. Including Tottenville in Staten Island, which is like an highly conservative neighborhood. That truly surprised me. Cuomo held very white areas, affluent zones and very religiously Jewish areas, and plus gained all of these conservatives on Staten Island with a strong turnout. I think there was a lot of tactical voting by GOP voters. This happened prior to Trump tweeted his support for the candidate, but that definitely helped. It might have changed the outcome unless Mamdani’s coalition hadn’t grown.

The “Commie Corridor”

What about your often-discussed left-wing base – did backing for the candidate overwhelming in those parts of Brooklyn and Queens?

In my view there was some weakening of the commie corridor in some areas like neighborhoods that have more older white ethnic folks. There, instance, the property owners and homeowners supported the independent. Thus there existed some opposition. However no, largely the leftist base is a key factor why Mamdani won – he scored between 77% and 83% in specific neighborhoods.

Jewish Voters

Prior to the vote there was coverage on if Mamdani was making inroads with Jewish New Yorkers. Is there any suggestion that he did?

Exist areas with a lot of non-religious and left-inclined voters – such as specific locales – where he performed strongly. However in the wealthy Jewish communities like the Upper East Side, his Middle East stance definitely mattered there. Likewise in the more middle-class Jewish areas including Forest Hills, Rego Park, or Spuyten Duyvil and Riverdale – they all leaned the independent. Plus, you have Jewish immigrants from the former Soviet Union in the borough, they were pretty staunchly supportive. So it’s unclear if there were major surprises here, but he did hold left-leaning areas and even parts of the Upper West Side by big margins.

Long-Term Significance

Did Mamdani redefine what the city means politically? Will commie corridor become a launch pad for leftwing candidates?

Absolutely, it’s no coincidence that some of the biggest political leaders from the left come from a handful of neighborhoods in Brooklyn, Queens and the Bronx. I’m sure that we’ll see more of that – candidates will emerge from these neighborhoods to be elevated nationally.

But I believe that every city in the US can have similar progressive hubs. Cities are the epicenters of leftwing power in America – since they’re young, people rent and they represent locales where people are crushed by the inequalities exist.